Another Experiment
...Over time with the loading and unloading of the eye you will see the tail creep out if it is not stitched. The reason is exactly what was mentioned regarding unequal loading. That sort of back and forth motion can work the tail out...
The idea that hollow-braid splices, left unstitched, will slowly creep apart from repeated load cycles was new to me and I decided to test it. I created a brand new spliced eye in 3/8 in Tenex Tec, carefully milked all the slack out of the splice, then marked the exit point of the core with a magic marker. The mark was clean, and by peeling back part of the cover with the point of my awl, I could see that none of the black dye extended beneath the cover.
I was ready to test. Without disturbing the splice in any way, I clipped a biner through the eye and over a rod in my garage ceiling. About 3 feet below the eye, I applied an ascender with a foot loop. I arranged the ascender so that if I stepped down hard part of my weight would be on the floor, but something over 100 pounds would be on the rope. I then proceeded to load and unload the spliced eye 500 times at approximately 1-second intervals. Whew!
Again without disturbing the splice, I carefully carried the rig inside to inspect it. There was absolutely no evidence of retraction of the core. I am sure that if the core had moved as much as 1/32 inch, I would have detected it.
On a sudden hunch I tried another experiment. I gripped the splice about 5 inches from the eye, and began to idly fold it back and forth. After a few moments, I rotated the rope about 90 degrees and started folding some more. I fully expected that I would have to fold 500 or 1000 times before I would notice anything, but after about 40 folds, when I stole a quick glance at the eye, I was shocked to see my black mark had crept a full 1/2 inch from the throat!
It appears that unstitched eyes can easily creep apart in ordinary use, but the creep has nothing to do with load cycles. It is nice to discover the true mechanism for splice creep, but the remedy remains the same: stitch your splices.